According to the plan of exposure of various manufacturers in 2017, 2018 will be a year of full expansion of the photovoltaic industry's production capacity, and single-polysilicon wafer manufacturers will make huge amounts of money to prepare ammunition. However, since December 2017, Longji has taken the lead in reducing the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers. It has fallen below 5 yuan/piece. At the beginning of 2018, Longji and Jingke Energy successively signed a contract with Korean raw material manufacturers. The news of expanding production, falling prices, and purchasing has been mixed up, which is dazzling. Based on this, in response to some issues that the industry colleagues are more concerned about in the near future, Cai Junwei, an analyst of EnergyTrend, a new energy research center of Jibang Consulting, has conducted relevant interpretations.

1. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has fallen all the way: the current single polycrystalline price difference is stable at 0.8 yuan / piece

Longji shares have been adjusted several times since the end of 2017: since January 1, 2018, the company's monocrystalline silicon wafers have a total reduction of 156.75mmx156.75mm by 0.2 yuan. After adjustment, 180μm monocrystalline silicon wafers are executed at 5.4 yuan/piece, 190μm. The crystal wafer was executed at 5.55 yuan/piece; during the 18-year New Year's Day, the company lowered the price by 0.2 yuan/piece again; on February 4, the overall price of the single crystal silicon wafer was 156.75mm*156.75mm, and the 180μm monocrystalline silicon wafer was adjusted domestically. The price of 4.8 yuan / piece, the price is lowered by 0.4 yuan / piece, a drop of 7.7%.

As a single-crystal faucet manufacturer, Longji’s intensive price adjustments have caused widespread concern in the industry. In this regard, Cai Junwei, an analyst at EnergyTrend of Jibang New Energy Network, believes that Longji’s price drop last year was caused by the weakening of downstream market demand: Due to the rapid price drop of single crystal PERC, the sales volume of single crystal silicon wafers is insufficient, and the monocrystalline silicon wafers also have excessive profits, so the price drops with the market. The price drop in January this year was mainly to maintain the price difference with the polysilicon film. In fact, due to the price drop in the fourth quarter of last year, the single crystal has been very competitive at the battery end, and the demand in January is relatively inclined toward the single crystal. Therefore, the pressure on single crystal prices is not so large. The main reason for the price decline in January was that Longji took the initiative to keep down the price difference with the single crystal.

In fact, the main reason for the competition of single polycrystal is that the price difference is reduced to 0.4 yuan/piece in December, which supports the general monocrystalline battery and the general polycrystalline battery to compete in the market at close to the same price, affecting the polycrystalline battery on the market. The sales volume, so when the market generally declined at the end of December, single poly crystal began the bidding road.

Cai Weiwei said that from the perspective of silicon wafers, January and February should be the weakest period of demand this year. The follow-up will start to rebound in March. Due to the recent production cuts by Longji, the expected annual excess is pushed down. Therefore, the proportion of PERC is expected to increase. The market price of single crystal can be maintained at 0.8-1 yuan/piece without considering the market of single crystal cells. This difference is also acceptable for polycrystalline. Therefore, the recent bidding can be said to have stabilized. The two sides have a consensus on this price difference. The point that the future industry needs to pay attention to should shift from the single polycrystalline price difference to the market situation.

Silicon quotation on February 7, 2018

Whether the single crystal production capacity is excessive in 2.2018: single crystal PERC extrusion polycrystalline market, 18 years of single crystal production capacity is not excessive

In late January of this year, Longji announced the “Three-Year (2018-2020) Strategic Plan for Monocrystalline Wafer Business” (disclosure of the production capacity of Longji's wafer business in the next three years: strive to produce monocrystalline silicon wafers from 2018 to 2020) They reached 28GW, 36GW, and 45GW, respectively.

According to industry public information, by 2018, the comprehensive capacity of Longjiang's 28GW, Central 23GW and other manufacturers' small-scale production capacity will reach more than 60GW. The domestic single crystal market cannot completely consume so much capacity. In foreign countries, some demanding countries have begun to set up trade barriers, such as the US 201 clause, India double reverse, etc. In the face of this situation, it is impossible to ask, how to consume so much capacity? Will there be overcapacity?

In this regard, Cai Yuwei believes that the expansion of single crystal is based on the analysis of the advantages of single crystal manufacturers on their own cost and technical route, not just focusing on the growth of the terminal market. As for how to consume the capacity, because under the competition, the single crystal will plunder the market share that originally belonged to polycrystal, which is one of the reasons why the single crystal has to compete with polycrystalline. The pressure to increase the cost performance of single-crystal end products to compete with polycrystalline, so single-chip PERC fell sharply last year, the result of removing excess profit bubbles is the rapid rise of the attraction of single-crystal PERC.

In the past, single crystal PERC was mostly used only on residential roofs, but with the increase in cost performance, it has been used more on industrial and commercial roofs and even on ground power stations. The application field has also increased the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers, which will be single. The main method of digestion of crystalline silicon wafers.

Overcapacity is a common occurrence in the industrial cycle, especially when the technology tends to be flattened, the excess situation will be particularly fierce. However, at present, the low-cost technology of single crystal is still in the hands of big manufacturers, and how much can alleviate the rate of overcapacity. Therefore, under the premise of consciously reducing the annual output of single crystal plants in 18 years, the surplus situation is actually not It is as serious as imagined, but the possibility of excess in 19 years has been significantly improved. It is still necessary to focus on the dynamics of the quarterly market and single polycrystalline competition.

3. The single crystal factory successively signed the purchase contract with the raw material supplier: the silicon material is the basic guarantee for the expansion of production and market share.

Recently, Jingke and Longji successively signed a polysilicon material purchase contract with South Korea's OCI. Among the purchase contracts of Longji, the buyer is Longji and its subsidiaries Yinchuan Longji, Baoshan Longji, Lijiang Longji and Ningxia Longji. The seller is OCI and its subsidiaries. OCIM, the contractor's name is solar grade polysilicon, the former will purchase a total of 64,638 tons of solar grade polysilicon from March 2018 to February 2021.

At the same time, Grand New Energy Company announced that it has signed long-term silicon supply contracts with a number of first-tier Chinese solar photovoltaic manufacturing companies, and its orders for 2018 have been completed 90.2%.

The price drop of monocrystalline silicon wafers has attracted industry attention, and the panic of overcapacity has been repeatedly said. Under this circumstance, Longji and Jingke still signed long-term procurement contracts with upstream raw material suppliers. In this regard, Cai Yuwei believes that the biggest weakness of single crystal in the expansion, price reduction, and increase of market share is the guarantee of raw materials. Since the supply of raw materials is not in their own hands, it is easy to break the production suddenly. In the case of the contract, long-term agreements, agreements, joint ventures, etc. have become necessary means to ensure the raw materials. Therefore, under the clear three-year expansion plan of Longji, it is a reasonable practice to sign a long-term agreement with OCI.

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