Insufficient natural gas supply

In recent days, despite the full supply of three barrels of oil, due to strong demand in the heating season, the shortage of natural gas is still spreading. In addition to the North China region such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the southern provinces and other provinces have begun to suffer from insufficient supply. Affected by this, many downstream gas companies have to stop production due to gas restrictions. Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Guo Jian told the "Securities Daily" reporter that in order to improve the gas supply capacity, the future should actively accelerate the construction of gas storage and peaking facilities, especially the construction of strategic gas storage should be put on the agenda as soon as possible. The major natural gas consumption areas, especially the northern heating areas with large seasonal peaks and valleys, should improve the construction of natural gas reserve stations as soon as possible. The shortage of natural gas has spread to many provinces in the south. In order to ensure the supply of natural gas in the heating season in North China, in addition to the tight supply of natural gas in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi, there are also problems in supply difficulties in many southern provinces. Guizhou Energy Bureau official website released news that with the rapid increase in natural gas demand, the national daily gas consumption gap reached 40 million cubic meters, and PetroChina has taken gas-restricting measures for some provinces. The Sinopec Southwest Petroleum Bureau is expected to continue to experience low temperatures. The largest supply gap in the Sichuan-Yunnan region may reach 20 million cubic meters per day. The Southwest Petroleum Bureau has taken various measures to guarantee supply, including reducing or stopping gas supply to some enterprises controlled by the company, and adjusting 1 million cubic meters of natural gas per day to ensure market supply. At the same time, PetroChina issued a notice saying that from December 10th, all chemical fertilizers and chemicals in the Sichuan-Yunnan region will be shut down to use gas in Baohua North, including gas head urea and gas head methanol. As of now, Sinopec has not completely stopped supplying gas, but it has also severely restricted gas. In order to minimize the imbalance between natural gas supply and demand caused by various factors, CNPC Gas Sales Company has urgently launched an emergency plan, and increased measures to increase production and supply, strictly reduce oil system industrial gas, and orderly reduce direct supply to industrial users. Coordinate with the relevant regions and downstream users to implement the people's livelihood. In addition to the Sichuan-Yunnan region, the rest of the South also began to limit gas due to insufficient natural gas supply. On December 7, the Hubei Provincial Government held a video conference on the province's peak winter energy security work. On the same day, nearly 300 industrial and commercial gas users in Wuhan were shut down. In addition, the Hunan Provincial Economic and Information Commission issued an "Emergency Notice on the Release of the Winter Yellow Warning for Natural Gas Peaks in Hunan Province (Level III)" issued on December 11, saying that since the winter, the supply of upstream resources and natural gas have increased. Affected by a variety of factors such as a sharp increase in demand, natural gas supply has experienced national tensions and spread from the north to Hunan Province. The industry believes that due to the increase in air pollution prevention and control and the clean heating in the north, the demand for natural gas in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is concentrated, resulting in a shortage of natural gas. It is necessary to mention that the downstream enterprises have to stop production and stop production . In order to ensure the supply of natural gas in the heating area, the downstream enterprises are caught in the dilemma of being airless. On the evening of December 12, Yuntianhua announced that due to the significant increase in the use of natural gas in winter, the gas supply unit has suspended the natural gas supply of the main gas enterprises in the southwest region to ensure the demand for gas for residents, resulting in the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Yunnan Water. Fuyun Tianhua Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Shuifu Yuntianhua”) is a production facility for synthetic ammonia and urea products with natural gas as the main raw material temporarily suspended. The announcement shows that the equipment that was discontinued includes an ammonia plant with an annual output of 500,000 tons and a urea plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons. The production suspension has been implemented since December 11, and production is not expected to resume until December 31. Other non-natural gas-based polyoxymethylene and methanol plants will remain in normal production. Zhongyu Information analyst Tang Feifei told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the environmental protection normalization in the fourth quarter has intensified, and the limited, reduced production, and limited gas limits have exceeded market expectations, and even more for the people to use heating, the southwest gas head in addition to Meifeng outside the line Parking, operating rate fell to a new low. At the same time, the "Securities Daily" reporter was also informed that in view of the fact that Huanggang City has launched an emergency plan and completely shut down non-residential gas, its Hubei Huanggang LNG plant was suspended on December 13 and will be based on upstream conditions. Temporary shutdown measures for non-resident users in urban areas are in turn. The order of shutdown is industrial users, commercial households, residential heating households, school troops, and so on. It is understood that since mid-November, in order to ensure the demand for civil heating in the northern region, PetroChina has continuously increased its gas-restricting efforts. Hubei Huanggang Liquid Factory has maintained low-volume operation since its commencement, and its operating rate has remained between 35% and 40%. The sunrise tanker ranges from 50 cars to 70 cars, and its supply can be transported to the two lakes, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi and southern Shandong. Especially when the LNG price in the northern region has exceeded 8,000 yuan/ton, its lower self-raising price is deeply favored by downstream users and bears the supply responsibility of most of Central China. Wu Yunyun, an analyst at Jinlian Chuang, told the Securities Daily that the gas cut-off in the Huanggang LNG plant has undoubtedly worsened the already scarce market, which has greatly reduced the inflow ventilation in the Central China market. Outside, you can only find gas sources in the southwest, north China, and even south China. By then, the downstream receiving price may further increase. She also pointed out that Huanggang Liquid Factory has no clear time to tell when the production will resume in the later period, and as the temperature is further reduced, the heating demand is further increased. Under the “gas shortage” continued fermentation, the price of LNG in the north continued to rise. As of now, the LNG ex-factory price in North China has once again exceeded the threshold of 8,000 yuan/ton, and there is a trend of 9000 yuan/ton. In the short term, transactions in the market will remain high.

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