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Polysilicon price improves downstream environment
On the 19th, Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, stated in Beijing that the dialogue between China and the EU regarding trade tensions over photovoltaic (PV) products has been "smooth and beneficial." Earlier reports indicated that over 700 European PV companies had urged the European Commission to reconsider sanctions against China’s solar industry. This suggests that there is a growing possibility that the EU may find a proper resolution to the ongoing dual anti-dumping and countervailing measures against Chinese PV products.
With the recent drop in silicon prices and increased deployment of distributed solar applications, the outlook for downstream PV products appears to be improving. The trade conflict initially escalated sharply when the European Commission launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into Chinese solar panels in September and November of last year. In response, China announced its own investigations into anti-dumping and countervailing practices by South Korea, the U.S., and the EU in December.
In March this year, the EU introduced mandatory import registration for Chinese PV products, significantly broadening the scope of potential sanctions. However, the Chinese side argues that the EU's "double-reverse" investigation into the PV sector has serious procedural flaws. While the registration process does not automatically lead to tariffs, it depends on the final findings of the investigation.
China has since postponed the preliminary results of its anti-dumping investigation on imported polysilicon twice. As a result, the price of polysilicon—which had been rising steadily—has started to stabilize. According to data from solar quotation agencies, the average price of polysilicon has dropped slightly to $17.8 per kilogram, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. Meanwhile, the prices of solar cells and modules have remained relatively stable.
Analysts note that after China delayed its preliminary ruling on imported polysilicon, more Chinese suppliers have become active in the market, increasing supply and causing a sharp decline in prices. This development benefits mid-to-lower-tier solar cell and module manufacturers.
“A time of both opportunity and challenge for domestic enterprises,†said a PV expert. “The entire industry is still in a phase of capacity reduction and consolidation. Wuxi Suntech’s bankruptcy reorganization marks the start of capacity exit.†At the same time, the government is accelerating the rollout of distributed PV projects.
Rumors suggest that subsidies for distributed PV installations may rise to as high as 0.4 to 0.45 yuan per watt. Combined with the 3 to 4 cents per watt from the halving of value-added tax, the total subsidy per kWh could reach around 0.48 yuan, which is higher than previously expected.