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Polysilicon price improves downstream environment
On the 19th, Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, stated in Beijing that the dialogue between China and the EU regarding trade tensions over photovoltaic (PV) products has been "smooth and beneficial." Earlier, the European Union reported that around 700 PV companies had jointly urged the European Commission to reconsider sanctions against China's solar industry. This development suggests that it is not impossible for the EU to find a proper resolution to the ongoing dual anti-dumping and countervailing measures against Chinese PV products.
Recent market trends also indicate a shift. The drop in silicon prices, along with the growing adoption of distributed PV applications, are expected to improve the survival prospects for downstream PV products. The trade dispute initially escalated dramatically when the European Commission launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into Chinese solar panels in September and November of last year. In response, China announced its own investigations against South Korea, the U.S., and the EU in December 2023.
In March this year, the EU introduced mandatory import registration for Chinese PV products, significantly expanding the scope of potential sanctions. However, the Chinese side has criticized the EU’s “double-reverse†investigation process as having serious flaws. While the registration requirement does not automatically mean tariffs will be imposed, the final outcome still depends on the investigation results.
China has since postponed the preliminary findings of the imported polysilicon “double-reverse†investigation twice. As a result, the price of polysilicon, which had been rising for months, has started to ease. According to data from solar quotation agencies, the average price of PV-grade polysilicon dropped to $17.8/kg in recent weeks, marking a 4.3% decline from the previous week. Meanwhile, the prices of batteries and modules have remained relatively stable.
Analysts note that the delay in the preliminary ruling has led to an increase in Chinese suppliers choosing domestic polysilicon sources, which has boosted market supply and caused a sharp price drop. This is favorable for mid-to-lower-tier solar cell and module manufacturers.
“Domestic enterprises are currently facing both opportunities and challenges,†said a PV industry expert. He added that the entire photovoltaic sector is still in a phase of capacity reduction and consolidation. The bankruptcy reorganization of Wuxi Suntech marks the start of this adjustment period. At the same time, the government is accelerating the rollout of distributed PV projects.
Rumors suggest that subsidies for distributed PV installations may soon rise to 0.4–0.45 yuan per watt. When combined with the 3–4 cents per watt in tax reductions, the total subsidy per kWh could reach approximately 0.48 yuan, surpassing initial expectations. This development could provide further support to the domestic solar industry.