(Original title: 36æ°ª exclusive | shuffle! Shared bicycle production has dropped significantly)

Wen|Yang Lin Yan Hao

Sharing a bicycle is like a gust of wind, scraping it quickly, and now it will blow through it quickly.

Xu Ming, the founder of a domestic shared bicycle, said that his team is currently working with a bicycle factory in Tianjin to produce a batch of 5,000 shared bicycles. This is the plan they made in April this year. The deposit has been delivered. . However, when the new cars are on the market, they will stop producing new bicycles. As far as he knows, many relatively small shared bicycle brands have begun to stop production.

"It is already the second half of the shared bicycle. There is no money to make a new car, and there is no need to create new capacity." Xu Ming said.

Starting from April and May of this year, almost all bicycle manufacturers and purchasers in various places have found that, except foro and Mobai, the two largest shared bicycle brands in China, almost all of the shared bicycles have been significantly reduced.

Both Mobai and ofo have their own large car factories, such as Fujitec and Phoenix, so those bicycle factories and purchasers who rely mainly on small brands are the first to feel the impact.

“The order quantity of various types of special accessories has dropped, and the order change of locks is particularly obvious.” The founder of the shared bicycle purchase, the founder of Qianxing Riding Tour said to 36氪 at the beginning of the week. Qianxing Riding Tour has cooperated with many domestic shared bicycle brands, and is mainly responsible for helping the brand to purchase and produce bicycle parts in Guangdong and Tianjin.

At present, the production plants for shared bicycles in the country are mainly concentrated in the Bohai Bay with Tianjin as the center, the Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai and Jiangsu as the center, and the Pearl River Delta region with Shenzhen and Guangzhou as the center.

At the beginning of the week, he told 36 氪. As far as he knows, at present, apart from the two or three largest cars in Guangzhou, there are almost no orders for bicycles sharing bicycles. “There are some small brands that may choose to cooperate with the car factories in Tianjin. The production cost and transportation cost will be lower, and the low-end car industry chain is relatively mature." Before April and May this year, the Guangzhou automakers added at least 100,000 vehicle orders per month.

When asked about the non-head shared bicycles in the market, when the current production capacity generally declined, Zhou said at the beginning of the week, "The magnitude is not good, but if it is four or five percent, it should be more than that."

However, even in Tianjin, various car manufacturers generally felt the decline in shared bicycle production. “After May, it is particularly obvious that the capacity in Tianjin can be reduced by 70% to 80%. Some shared bicycle brands have even dropped 100%, completely stopping the manufacture of new cars.” Tianjin Yulong bicycle manufacturer Liu Liangtu told 36 Hey, in addition to several relatively large manufacturers such as Bond Fujita, relatively small car manufacturers are now unable to receive orders for complete vehicles. "The factory with parts and components related to bicycle sharing is also large. The shrinkage of the amplitude."

Wangqingyu Town, located in Wuqing District of Tianjin, has always been a concentrated production area for northern bicycles, where bicycle factories are large and small. Before last year, many of the bicycles or accessories that were produced there were used for export in addition to domestic demand. Since the second half of last year, production orders for various brands to share bicycles have come to the fore. Many car manufacturers have begun to share the business of bicycles, responsible for vehicle manufacturing and parts production. A bicycle manufacturer in the town who did not want to be named revealed that at most, the entire town could receive orders for complete vehicles or parts of millions of bicycles a day. "The factory that had a bad performance and was about to close down, spent tens of millions of dollars last year to expand the production line, and it is also catching up with the vent."

"With cash and can not buy parts and components", has become a distress for bicycle manufacturers, some manufacturers even previously hoarded parts.

Yulong Bicycle Factory is also located in Wangqingyu Town. To some extent, the rise of shared bicycles has changed the lifestyle of Liu Liangtu. Now open his WeChat circle of friends, seeing the most is the business analysis and reporting on shared bicycles. Recently he forwarded several news related to ofo and commented that "shared bicycles are meaningful existence."

"But now it has changed. The cyclist of sharing bicycles is just to let the small bicycle factories live for a few more months," said the bicycle manufacturer, who is not willing to be named.

Big car manufacturers may not be better. The staff of a well-known bicycle production brand told 36 氪 that the production capacity of shared bicycles with lower rankings is lower. This is the consensus of the industry and the general trend. “The factory that was originally expected to rely on shared bicycle revival We, indeed, have been disappointed in the last two months."

Chen Zhen, chairman of Shanghai Permanent Bicycles, directly rejected the 36-inch interview application, “it is not convenient to comment on sharing bicycle-related matters”. He is also a capital partner in the middle of the road that has invested in Uber. When asked about the current capacity of Ubay, he replied, "There is a confidentiality agreement, can't say."

At the beginning of the week, the decline in the capacity of the last shared bicycle, the capital to the head of the Mobai and ofo gathering is the most important factor. "The brands that are behind are either transforming their own blood, or saving some flowers, waiting for the next round of winds, and when they are crazy, they should have passed."

The visible demand and simple profit logic are the basic judgments that capital initially entered the shared bicycle. From O2O, net car to shared bicycle, capital is expected to form a "little giant" through rapid "burning money" competition. However, as the financing continued, the valuations were chasing high, and the follow-up capital mentality began to change subtly.

Zhao Nan, a partner of Moby, and Zhao Feng, a partner of Xiangfeng Capital, told 36 that the capital is currently monopolizing resources at the source of the upstream supply chain, and small players are being cleaned. “Once the shared bicycles enter the long-term battle from blitzkrieg, various subsequent costs will increase, such as maintenance cost + loss rate, etc. The cost of the system needs to rely on the fund construction of the entire system and the continuous promotion of the brand. Confront with top2."

Although there is no market ranking for the relative authority of shared bicycle brands, both Mobai and Ofo are recognized as the top 2 in this field, regardless of influence, financing amount and market share. In June of this year, Mobai just got a $600 million E-round financing. In April, theo's D+ round of financing also had hundreds of millions of dollars. At present, the two companies have a market capitalization of more than 2 billion US dollars, and they are among the unicorn clubs.

In addition, 36æ°ª surveyed more than a dozen bicycle brands commonly found in the market, including small blue bicycles, Xiaoming bicycles, riding rafts and Yuba bicycles. According to data from IT Orange, they have more financing processes. Staying in the A round, the recent financing time is mainly based on the end of last year and the beginning of this year.

Therefore, Zhao Nan also agreed with the decline in the capacity of other shared bicycles. “It is easy to understand that upstream manufacturers are not willing to cooperate with them. They are too small in order to be under the exclusive pressure of the giants, and the production capacity will naturally decline. Secondly, They have limited funds and don't dare to place orders anymore. Now, ofo and Mobai are free to ride bicycles. Small players can only rely on the free deposit to compete. They are free for the previous hour. Where does the small player cash flow come from? There is not much money. How dare they go crazy to place an order?"

The production costs of shared bicycles are getting higher and higher, and the small brands are gradually discouraged. A Guangdong-based shared bicycle purchaser revealed that the production cost of shared bicycles has nearly doubled in the past year. “A similar car, we are looking for a car factory in 2015, it may only cost more than 200 yuan, now if it With the label of the shared bicycle, the price will be turned to 400 or even 500."

The above purchasers believe that the rise of shared bicycles has completely changed the supplier's production system. The demand of the brand side is large, and the goods are urgent, and the car manufacturers feel that they are profitable. "We went to the supporting factories and did not dare to tell them that they are supplying accessories for sharing bicycles, otherwise the price will rise again."

In addition, the shared bicycle market is becoming saturated, which is another reason for the decline in small-capacity shared bicycle production capacity. By the beginning of 2017, bicycles of various colors flocked out, and the market as a whole was over 3 million vehicles, entering nearly 50 cities. The industry has predicted that the total order volume of shared bicycles in 2017 will exceed 30 million.

Guo Jingjing, vice president of bicycle creator 700bike, said in an interview with the media that the current volume of 500,000 vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai has become saturated. The demand for the first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is only 2 million, while the other three and four lines The size of the city is not large, and the country's total of about 10 million to 15 million vehicles can meet market demand.

This seems to have been predicted by the small blue bicycle CEO Li Gang at the beginning of the year. This July will be the first turning point in the shared bicycle industry. "There have been some problems exposed at present, according to the cost of bicycles and the speed of paving, and currently The loss rate, after 3-5 months, will be a problem of a lot of shared bicycle platform vehicles, even when repairing and recycling. According to the current state of the industry, many players will be washed off at that time."