After remaining stable for several months, the Bohai Bay thermal coal price index has finally dipped. For the latest reporting period, the comprehensive average price of 5,500-kcal thermal coal stood at RMB 641 per ton, marking a decrease of RMB 2 per ton compared to the previous period. This shift signals an interesting turn in the market dynamics of thermal coal. Meanwhile, the coal transaction prices at the Qinhuangdao port have remained steady for three consecutive weeks. According to recent data, the price for 4500-kcal thermal coal remains between 455-465 yuan/ton, while the price for 5000-kcal thermal coal stays within 555-565 yuan/ton. The 5500-kcal thermal coal is priced between 635-645 yuan/ton, and the 5800-kcal thermal coal hovers around 680-690 yuan/ton. These figures indicate no significant change from the previous week, suggesting a period of stability amidst potential market shifts. Interestingly, the average trading price for 5500-kcal thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao Port has remained constant at RMB 640/ton, which is still RMB 160/ton below the government-set “coal” ceiling price. This pricing discrepancy could reflect ongoing regulatory measures aimed at controlling inflation and ensuring energy affordability. The latest results from the Bohai Bay thermal coal price index reveal a noteworthy trend: while more than half of the port specifications still maintain stable prices, reflecting the overall market trend, there's a growing number of specifications showing a downward trajectory. This indicates that the market sentiment for thermal coal prices in the region may be shifting towards a downward trend. Notably, this is the first time since August 1st that the comprehensive average price for thermal coal in the 5500-kcal market in the Bohai Rim has experienced a downturn after nine consecutive weeks of increases and stagnation. From a broader perspective, the declining trend in thermal coal transaction prices for both 5500 and 4500-kcal grades in the Bohai Rim is becoming increasingly apparent. This could be linked to rising inventories at major ports in the Bohai Rim, coupled with reduced coal procurement activity by power companies due to their high inventory levels. Additionally, the decline in international coal prices has led to a resurgence in imported coal, further pressuring domestic coal prices. Looking ahead, these factors combined could exert additional downward pressure on the coal market, potentially leading to further price adjustments in the near future. As global supply chains adjust and domestic policies evolve, the coal industry may experience further fluctuations, warranting close attention from stakeholders.

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