Ferrosilicon prices are strong, metal silicon will continue to rise

**Abstract** Core Tip: Ferrosilicon prices are continuing to rebound, with improved market turnover. Manufacturers are mainly focusing on fulfilling orders, and the spot market in the northwest is tight, with some producers reluctant to sell. It is expected that prices will see a slight increase next week. **I. Domestic Market Review** (a) Ferrosilicon This week, ferrosilicon prices continued their upward trend. In the northwest region, the mainstream price for ferrosilicon 72 was reported at 5,750–5,850 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, ferrosilicon 75 was priced at 5,950–6,050 yuan/ton, showing relative stability. In Inner Mongolia, ferrosilicon 75 slightly increased to 6,000–6,100 yuan/ton (tax-inclusive). Market transactions have improved this week, despite fewer new inquiries from traders. Increased demand from existing clients has led to faster inventory turnover, and manufacturers are primarily producing to fulfill orders. With limited stock in the market, the bullish sentiment remains strong. Some previously suspended manufacturers are considering resuming operations, while others are planning to expand production capacity. Although the supply-demand balance is slightly strained, steel mills’ profitability hasn’t significantly improved, which has kept ferrosilicon price increases in check. As a result, businesses remain cautious about the recent price recovery. On the downstream side, the steel market did not continue its previous rebound. Steel prices remained stable at the start of the month, with weak shipments and limited upward movement. The “Golden September and Silver October” peak season remains uncertain. At the same time, the magnesium ingot market saw a short-term rally, but downstream demand remained sluggish, making it difficult to sustain higher prices. Magnesium ingot prices are expected to remain low in the near term. With raw material markets constrained, expectations for a sustained recovery in ferrosilicon prices are not high. (b) Metal Silicon Metal silicon prices also rose this week. The current price range for 3303 was 12,400–12,600 yuan/ton, 2202 was 13,400–13,600 yuan/ton, oxygen-free 553 was 11,300–11,400 yuan/ton, and 441 was 11,900–12,100 yuan/ton. Prices increased by more than 100 yuan per ton (port tax-inclusive). The spot supply of metal silicon in Yunnan remains tight, with most manufacturers selling out quickly and maintaining little to no inventory. Some producers have raised prices and are hesitant to sell, preparing for the dry season by building up stocks. Due to the tight market, metal silicon prices continue to climb. The oxygen-free 553 port price has reached 1,500 yuan/ton, and with Yunnan implementing the "silicon-electricity linkage" policy, electricity prices have been adjusted alongside rising silicon prices, providing additional support to the market. With the rise in metal silicon prices, some previously shut-down manufacturers in the southwest are planning to resume production. With the end of the flood season, concerns over construction activity lowering prices have eased. Currently, downstream demand is improving, and metal silicon is gaining momentum. Manufacturers face minimal shipment and capital pressure, and there is strong willingness to continue raising prices. Even though downstream traders find it challenging to accept the increases, they are unwilling to trade at lower levels. **II. International Market** As of September 6, ferrosilicon prices in Hong Kong were reported at 1,350–1,380 USD/ton, while U.S. ferrosilicon was priced at 0.94–0.96 USD/lb, up by 0.03 USD. European ferrotium iron was reported at 1,020–1,060 EUR/ton. For metal silicon, Hong Kong prices were 1,890–1,980 USD/ton, with both high and low prices rising by $100 and $80 respectively. European metal silicon was priced at 1,950–2,050 EUR/ton, and U.S. metal silicon at 120–125 cents/lb. Ferrosilicon export prices remained stable this week. The FOB price for Tianjin Port’s 72 was 1,370–1,380 USD/ton, and 75 was 1,380–1,390 USD/ton. Metal silicon export prices saw a slight increase, rising by 20–30 USD. The mainstream FOB price for oxygen-free 553 was 1,860–1,890 USD/ton, while 441 was 1,980–2,000 USD/ton. The FOB price for 2202 was 2,190–2,230 USD/ton, and 3303 was 2,070–2,110 USD/ton. **III. Market Outlook** Industry analysts believe that ferrosilicon prices are continuing to rebound, with improved market activity. Manufacturers are mainly focused on fulfilling orders, and the northwest market is tight, with some producers reluctant to sell. A slight price increase is expected next week. For metal silicon, the price continues to rise, with limited supply and strong manufacturer willingness to raise prices. The “silicon-electricity linkage” policy in Yunnan provides strong support to the market. It is expected that metal silicon prices will continue to climb in the coming weeks.

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