Li Keqiang: China's economy will not hard landing and will continue to grow at a high speed

Abstract: To build a beautiful world of inclusive development - Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, delivered a speech at the British think tank on June 18, 2014. Dear Mr. Chipman, Dear Niblit, Dear White. .
Building a beautiful world of inclusive development

- Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, delivered a speech at the British think tank on June 18, 2014. Dear Mr. Chipman, Dear Nibli, Dear Mr. Bai Erya, Ladies and Gentlemen, Friends: Good morning everyone!

I am very happy to be here to meet with friends from the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Both of these worlds are highly regarded and can be said to be top think tanks. Any one of your think tanks can hold separate seminars on international, regional and national issues. But I am very happy that today the two companies have joined together to hold a lecture for me. This shows that your concern about the Chinese issue also shows that you do have a lot of wisdom. Although everyone has independent thinking, together they will have a collision of ideas, but your joint presentation of this report also shows an inclusive mentality. I admire everyone.

Tolerance can be said to be a sign of the progress of human civilization. As early as in ancient China, thinkers explicitly proposed "harmony and difference", but "harmony is expensive". It coincides with this. In this era, the European philosophers put forward the process of looking back on the development of human history. It should be "Harmony will produce justice and goodness." Although the origins of Eastern and Western civilizations are different, we all know how to live in harmony and embrace each other. People have entered the 21st century and need to develop inclusively. It is also an inclusive mentality that everyone attaches importance to China.

Because Britain is the first country to achieve industrialization, China is still a developing country. Of course, China is a country with a population of 1.3 billion and is advancing modernization. Your concern is also a concern about the development of the world that cannot be tolerated. But it is normal to say that China has such a statement.

The ancient Chinese poetry has said, "Looking at the side of the mountain into a peak", even if it is a mountain, you will have a different impression from a different perspective. I am trying to give you a more complete impression today to get to know China. Of course, the size of China and the number of territories are not explained in a short time. I choose it.

Over the past 30 years, China has undergone reform and opening up, especially the hard work of the people. We have solved the poverty problem of 600 million people. This can be said to be a recognized fact in the world, letting 600 million people eat and warm clothes, so that they have the right to subsistence and make them dignified. In this process, our efforts have also been realized in the open, and have received the support and help of the international community, including the concerns of our friends here. China is grateful. But at the same time, we also see that China has a population of 1.3 billion and a target of 1.3 billion. The firm will is to achieve modernization. This will be a long road.

Because our development is still unbalanced now, although China's total economic output is the second in the world, our per capita GDP is more than 80. Our per capita GDP is only $6,800, and in China's vast Midwest, it has just reached $5,000, and even in some provinces in western China, it is only $2,000. According to the standards of international organizations, there are still 200 million people in China living below the poverty line. This is the challenge we face and the difficulty we must overcome in order to achieve the goal of modernization.

Modernization, as its main content says, should be industrialization and urbanization. Here I want to talk about urbanization first, why? Because the development of urbanization in China is lagging behind, we still have 600 to 700 million people living in rural areas. And because of China's special circumstances, there are more than 200 million Chinese farmers who work mainly in the city, but our financial resources are limited, public goods are limited, they can't live with the city in the past, people who have already obtained the registered population In comparison, there is no equal right to enjoy public services.

And there are still 100 million people in China living in shanty towns in cities. Many of you may have been to China, but I dare say that few of you have been to China's shanty towns. I have been there and have been there many times. I used to work in an important industrial province in China, where a large number of shanty towns were built during the industrialization process, which took decades. Going in, you will find that it does not have basic living conditions, no rain, no wind, no frost resistance, and even people wear cotton coats, cotton caps, and several layers of quilts to fall asleep when they are in the cold winter. When people add up, there are 300 million.

Therefore, we call the existing 300 million people is our top priority, and we should gradually solve their conditions of survival and development. That is to say, 100 million people who have already worked in the eastern cities have obtained formal urban household registration and enjoy the same public services.

It is also necessary to let 100 million people, of course, return to their hometowns in the central and western regions according to their wishes, and achieve urbanization near them because China's eastern cities have limited capacity. Many people may have been to Beijing and Shanghai. You will find that if the cities with tens of millions of people continue to expand, how can traffic congestion be solved? Where does safe drinking water come from? So our Midwest must also accommodate these already working in the city.

With 300 million people solved, we have 300 to 400 million people. If the front is the first stage, you can imagine that so many people can't solve it in a few years, five years or eight years, then it will be even harder in the next stage. Because any developed country must realize the modernization of agriculture and improve the labor productivity of agriculture in order to achieve industrialization, his agricultural labor population accounts for no more than 10%. It is a much longer process to let these people enter the city in an orderly manner.

Therefore, we say that China will not reach the middle level in the middle of this century and realize Chinese-style modernization.

Of course, modernization and industrialization are, in a certain sense, two aspects of a sentence. China’s industrialization has developed rapidly in the past 30 years and has achieved remarkable achievements. The "Made in China" that everyone is familiar with is sometimes confused by the Chinese themselves. Many Chinese people travel abroad and say that we want to buy a foreign product and send it back to our friends. He carefully selected it. When he bought it and gave it to his friends, he flipped the label inside. "Made in China", Chinese goods wrap around A circle is back.

However, we are still producing low-end products, and China's industrialization should move toward the middle and high-end. This is also an inevitable choice for us to break through the bottlenecks of energy, resources and the environment. We must make China's products more resource-saving and energy-saving, and also make China's products move toward higher quality. climate change.

In this process, China will provide huge business opportunities to the world. According to our current calculations, we will have to import a total of 10 trillion US dollars of goods in the next five years. Because there is no import, there is no export. It is not advisable to trade imbalance.

Moreover, China will be deeply integrated with the world and will invest more than US$500 billion. I said to my friends in the UK yesterday that I am in the UK. What I want to say here is that I hope that these investments will give priority to China. Although it is a corporate behavior, the government will guide and support it.

Not only that, but China also has 500 million tourists to go abroad. Last year, we have 100 million tourists going abroad. With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, more tourists will go abroad to the UK. I heard that this building has a history of 250 years and I don't know if it is open to tourists. But there are many places to see in the UK, and you have a deep cultural heritage.

The challenges China faces in the development process are numerous. The two challenges I mentioned earlier are not in the history of mankind. Because 1.3 billion people want to achieve modernization and take the road of industrialization and urbanization, they need to work hard. explore.

After decades of development, the speed of development has slowed down. In the past, it was a double-digit annual growth rate. In recent years, our growth rate has been around 7.5%. So there is also discussion that the Chinese economy is slowing down and will it continue? Even a hard landing? Here I am honest and officially promise to you: No. why? Based on the two major factors I mentioned earlier, China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization. China's development is uneven. The gap between the region and the urban and rural areas is itself a potential. It has huge domestic demand. As long as we grasp the direction, we will continue to work diligently. Work, and then use the wisdom of the East, of course, we are also willing to absorb the wisdom of the West, China's economy will maintain high-speed growth for a long time.

As far as the front is concerned, the Chinese government implements range control and directional regulation on the operation of the economy to ensure that its lower limit does not exceed 7.5. Or to ensure the growth of full employment, so that the upper limit CPI does not exceed 3.5, so that people's lives are not affected.

We have the ability to conduct directional regulation, and without taking strong incentives, adopting precise force and targeted regulation, we can maintain the Chinese economy, realize many major economic goals represented by 7.5 this year, and lay the foundation for future development. Achieve long-term high-speed growth.

Now China’s economy is already 9 trillion US dollars. If it grows by 7.5 per year, it means about 1 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to the total amount of a medium-sized economy. This is not easy in itself. It is also true for China and China. The world provides the foundation for development and huge business opportunities.

I have talked about so much economics data, and everyone here may not be particularly interested, because think tank research is often thought, ideas are sometimes more abstract and more intelligent than data, but after all, data is the foundation. I am not playing "digital games". I just want to make it clear that China will continue to reduce poverty, develop in a balanced manner and continue to develop healthily, which will provide tremendous opportunities for the world.

If China wants to develop and must unswervingly promote modernization, it must be a peaceful international environment and a stable surrounding environment. Otherwise, we cannot concentrate our efforts on construction. This is an almost unquestionable logic. Therefore, China’s foreign policy is an independent foreign policy, and it seeks the path of peaceful development. We hope to have a stable environment. The Chinese nation is a nation that loves peace. In ancient China, Confucius said that "I don't want to do anything to others." Some people call it silver law, but Chinese people are regarded as the law of gold. That is, it has been integrated into the national blood of the Chinese people and has become the basic way of life for the Chinese. The Chinese have no genes for expansion, and they cannot understand and accept the logic of "national power must be hegemony."

In the past, China’s development over the past 30 years has developed in a peaceful and stable environment. We have eaten the sweetness. Why should we give up? It is precisely because China is open and developing in the process of peaceful development that opening up has led to reforms and the Chinese have gradually moved toward prosperity. Why should we give up the results we have already achieved?

China is also a responsible big country. It advocates that countries should respect each other, treat each other as equals, live in peace, adhere to the UN [microblogging] charter and the norms of international relations, advocate the resolution of differences and disputes through peaceful means and diplomatic channels, and oppose resort to recourse. Armed forces and interference in other internal affairs. China will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development and pursue a strategy of openness and win-win. Willing to work with countries around the world to create an international environment of lasting peace.

For a long time, China has also contributed to maintaining peace and stability in the Asian region. It is precisely because China and neighboring countries have formed a consensus of cooperation and win-win, and jointly created a good atmosphere for handling differences through negotiation and negotiation, and East Asia has today's prosperity. China has always pursued the policy of “being good neighbors and partners” and is willing to live in harmony with all neighboring countries. However, China must also take effective measures to stop the situation and ruin the peace, and prevent the situation from being out of control. This is also to maintain order, maintain regional stability, and prompt the situation to return to the negotiation track of dialogue. We believe that as long as the countries in the region can negotiate in good faith and negotiate rationally, they will be able to maintain a peaceful and peaceful environment.

History shows us that war is the failure of human wisdom, and peace is the crystallization of reflection on disasters and sufferings. I went to No. 10 Downing Street yesterday and saw two portraits of Mr. Churchill, the Prime Minister of your country. He once said, "History contains all wisdom, and learning history is doomed to repeat the same mistakes." We should learn from the lessons of history, face history and face the future, and advance the political settlement of international peace and regional issues to jointly meet various traditional and non-traditional challenges to safeguard the prosperity and development of the world.

This is a very important external environment, so you may also ask me, you describe the goal, how will China's internal conditions improve? I just want to emphasize one point, that is reform. China’s tremendous achievements in the past 30 years have relied on reform and opening up. I once worked as a person in charge in a rural area of ​​China. At that time, I implemented a planned economy. I started to get up late every morning and arranged hundreds of people to do everything today. It was really hard. The result is that I can't eat enough stomach in a year. Later, we promoted the reform and implemented the rural contracting system, allowing the farmers to decide how to plant and how to plant them. In a few years, the problem of food and clothing was solved. This shows that everyone has the potential to develop, especially thousands of people, with great creativity, and the market has great vitality. Now that China’s economy has slowed down, how to maintain long-term high-speed growth? Still depends on reform. Let the market be more energetic and let the society exert more creativity.

Therefore, we first carry out the self-revolution of the government, eliminate the power that the government should not manage, and hand over the things that should be decided by the market to the market. I just want to give a data here. China’s economy also experienced downward pressure last year. We adopted a reform of the commercial system and simplified the method of enterprise registration. As a result, the number of newly added enterprises reached more than 30%. This year we will continue, and the number of new enterprises will exceed this ratio. This creates opportunities for the employment of thousands of people.

Of course, the government's decentralization does not mean that regardless of the abduction, counterfeiting, infringement of intellectual property rights, and illegal environmental pollution, the government must conduct post-event supervision and dispose of it according to law to create a fair competitive market environment. .

At the same time, we must promote structural reforms, relax market access, and allow private enterprises to let foreign capital enter China. Just now I said that China's foreign investment is willing to take Britain as one of the priority directions of choice, and also welcomes British companies to use China as the best choice for investment.

Deepening reform and opening up will inevitably lead to a new vitality in the Chinese economy. There will be more room for development in the creativity of thousands of people. These spaces will not only bring benefits to the Chinese but also create for the world. opportunity. China and the UK should regard their respective developments as opportunities and see that we can cooperate through our cooperation. Especially at the beginning, Mr. Bai Erya said, “We want to achieve win-win cooperation”, so that we can grow together. Inclusive development benefits the people of both countries and is also beneficial to the world.

My visit to the UK and the leaders of your government have conducted in-depth and frank talks. We have issued a Sino-British joint statement. We all believe that we must increase political mutual trust, mutual respect, equal cooperation, honesty and respect for each other's core. Benefits and major concerns. We believe that our development is a common growth. We should not only pursue the expansion of scale, but also enrich the connotation, especially in the study of ideas and ideas, the discovery of science and technology, and the exchange of education and culture. Continuous motivation.

We also believe that we must strengthen humanities exchanges. The British government has said that to reduce the visa procedures for Chinese citizens to the UK, this will inevitably reduce the time and more Chinese will come to the UK. Of course, we also require Chinese citizens to abide by British laws and respect local customs.

The 1.3 billion Chinese people are gradually moving out of the country. It will not be said that they will come one after another. At present, there is no such condition. I believe that the United Kingdom will gradually provide accommodation and services for Chinese tourists and businessmen. The Chinese government will also grasp the rhythm.

China and the UK have wisdom to make our development healthier and more sustainable.

Ladies and gentlemen:

Britain is rich in scientific, rational and tolerant cultural traits. China has an inclusive and open historical tradition. Although China and Britain are thousands of miles apart, they can be said to be "distant neighbors." Each other's science and technology, culture, art, and academic ideas are mutually attractive and mutually reinforcing. They can also be said to be "civilized partners." We are not far away. Shakespeare's "Romeo and Juliet" is a household name in China, and Tang Xianzu's "Peony Pavilion" is also on the British stage. English is the native language of the British, but today 300 million people are learning English and may be one of the countries with the most English learning in the world. China is the home of tea, but the United Kingdom is said to be one of the countries with the most per capita tea in the world.

The development of China and the United Kingdom has its roots and prospects and can move toward a high level. The United Kingdom and China are both great countries. They all have a long history, have created their own glory, and have a persistent pursuit of adapting to the tide of the times and seeking new changes. The British poet Shelley said: "People can't create the current situation, but they can seize the opportunities that have already emerged. The opportunity is in front of us." Chinese writer Su Dongpo said: "When you come and go, you can’t lose. The machine is also ", the timing is precious.

I feel that there are precious opportunities and precious opportunities for both China and Britain. China and the United Kingdom, the East and the West, developing countries and developed countries, in the face of the ever-changing world of development and change, should seize the opportunity to jointly meet the challenges and work together to build a beautiful world of inclusive development.

thank you all.

(The full text is organized according to the speech)

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